We have moved into a new era of pro-surfing with E-Lo’s volatile reign coming to an end in Rio De Janeiro. A new beginning for the World Surf League (WSL) will be ushered in at one of surfing’s most iconic point breaks, Jeffreys-Bay.  While there’s uncertainty in the front office, stakes are heating up for the world’s best surfers, with only two opportunities left to cement a spot in the top five and compete at Trestles. We currently have world champs, Steph Gilmore, John John Florence, Gabriel Medina and Italo Ferriera all outside the top five cut-off line. To gain as much insight into the event as possible, we spoke to the most successful competitive surfer ever at J-Bay, Mick Fanning (tied with Kelly for four wins), to dissect this year’s contest. The event window kicks off tomorrow arvo at 3:30 AEST and will end on the 22nd of July (Next Saturday).

But before we dive into this year’s J-Bay Pro, I had to ask Mick about his favourite memories in South Africa and his thoughts on the current state of pro-surfing.

What is your favourite memory of J-Bay? In or out of the jersey? What comes to mind?

So many. Sheesh the best thing is taking people there for the first ever time. Like, my good mates and I also took Tyler Wright there for her first time once. Just seeing the shock on their face. That’s the most amazing thing. But also just the people in J-Bay are just next level, incredible humans.

What is your favourite win out of the four that you won there?

They’re all really good. But 2016 was probably the one that just felt like I had unfinished business from the year before. (Mick’s infamous shark incident happened during the 2015 final) And so to put it all together. There was a few other things going on in the background as well, with stuff so it was a good one for me.

Thoughts on the current state of pro surfing? Do you have any ideas on who would be a good fit to be the WSL CEO?

There’s a lot of good people out there. I don’t know the situation to be honest. I can’t really comment on it. But yeah, look, it’s a tough one. You know, I think for the core surfer they don’t like change. But then on top of that, we do need a little bit of change. The guys and girls on tour are still surfing incredibly. And I think that’s the thing that we need to celebrate.

2023 J-Bay Pro Forecast

The WSL has been cursed this year by a tendency to miss swells just before the event window, and if you’ve been scrolling on social media, you would know that J-Bay has been absolutely pumping. Fortunately, it’s forecasted that J-Bay should be the event that breaks the curse – at least for swell.

The outlook suggests there will be swell for most of the event window, but unfavourable winds will cause headaches for the WSL. Waves are expected tomorrow, but there will also be unpleasant winds. It will most likely be lay days until possibly Sunday and Monday, when the expected hectic gales ease. A new, southerly ground swell is forecasted to come through the bay next Wednesday, which looks promising with five to six foot waves and clean-ish conditions predicted. The swell is expected to stick around to the end of the waiting period but once again un-desirable winds will ruin the party. In sum, it’s not forecasted to be amazing conditions like last year, but there is still plenty to get excited about. Due to the forecasted winds, the WSL will most likely have to use guerrilla warfare tactics by running half-days and then scampering back to bay-side accom’ for cover. 

Who does J-Bay favour?

Mick Fanning

Men

I think John John’s starting to find some form. He’ll be the tough one to beat and then probably defending champion in Ethan. Especially after his performance at Bells, I think he’s going to be really tough to beat. I think those two guys if it’s six foot. If it’s smaller then Filipe will be hard to beat.

Women

On the girls side, I feel like Steph might have got a bit of fire after Brazil. Plus, you know she’s so good in right-hand points and then I’d love to see Lakey do well, she always seems to do well there. So that’ll be a good one.

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Tracks

Men

I agree with Mick. Defending champ Ethan Ewing may very well win consecutive J-Bay events. The world no.3’s in hot form, plus we know how well his flawless style finds synergy with J-Bay’s long walls. Filipe Toledo’s a two-time champion at J-Bay and can score excellent rides no matter the conditions. The world no.1 cannot be counted out. Yago Dora is in hot form, and we saw him tear up the right-hand point last year when he placed third.

Women

I once agree with Mick and expect Steph to come fired up. Gilmore’s currently at world no. 6 and will be counting on a solid result at J-Bay to have a chance at winning a ninth world title this year. I could also see Carissa, Tyler and Caroline contending too. Carissa will be hungry for redemption after her disqualification in the semis last year at J-Bay.

Surprises?

Mick

Joao Chianca’s got the surfing that really suits it. The energy that he’s been throwing down all year has been awesome.

I think everyone’s excited for Molly Picklum and Caity Simmers, so that’ll be really fun to watch.

Tracks

I should be out of a job if I didn’t name Jordy Smith. If the big man’s healthy, he’s always a threat at his home break. Liam O’Brien was putting on a show at El Salvador’s right-hand point, Punta Roca; if LOB is smart with wave selection, I could see him doing well.

If Betty Lou finds opportunities to lay down her smooth rail-game, the Hawaiian could make a run on finals day.

Match-Up’s we wanna see?

Mick

I would love to see Caity Simmers vs Steph Gilmore. And I’d love to see John John and Ethan at six-foot J-Bay.

Tracks

I reckon Griff v Ewing would be a delicious match-up. And for a backhand perspective, a battle with Yago Dora and Gabriel Medina would be enticing. It makes it even juicier that Yago is in fifth on the rankings, and Medina is behind in seventh.

In the women’s, I’m gonna go with another backhand battle; last year’s winner Tatiana-Weston Webb against the in-form Caroline Marks would mean fireworks.

Penrith Panthers?

Mick

When Cleary gets back it’s game over I think.

Tracks

Up the Bunnies!

Wildcards / Injuries

The highest-ranked Africans on the Challenger Series, Sarah Baum and Adin Masencamp, were given the two wildcards. Both are making their debuts on the Championship Tour in front of their countrymen and women.

No injuries have been announced yet. Kelly Slater, who missed out on the Rio Pro,

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